How far the fall?
Posted by lowem,
Mon Aug 06 12:55:00 UTC 2007
In recent days, I have been telling all and sundry that I am expecting the following headline, or a variant thereof, to be splashed across newspapers : "All Stock Gains for 2007 Wiped Out". I know we are close, but how close are we? How far do shares have to fall across the various markets in order to wipe out all 2007 gains? Here's a Google spreadsheet that tells you how far :
As you can see, going by this criteria, Japan's Nikkei index has already been wiped out for this year. The US S&P500 has just 34.32 points, or 2.42% to go. Dow Jones has got a little bit further, 707.39 points or 5.67%. Australia's ASX is roughly in the same league. Fellow contrarian shooperman predicts that Singapore's STI will take out 3000 on the downside. That will include wiping out all 2007 gains too. Just another 2 or 3 days of 100 point drops would do it. Shanghai's SSE is going strong, though. People are either throwing money at the market, or their government is printing money like crazy and throwing it at the market. Could be both.
You know what they say - you need to know where you are before you know where you are going. So here we are. Meanwhile, I'm setting aside cash. And waiting for that headline. And getting ready to play contrarian.
